As of December 15, 2025, BE Group AB (publ) has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $509.15 per share. With the current market price at $28.40, this represents a potential upside of 1692.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $379.24 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $509.15 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 1235.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 1692.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 3.9% - 6.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4667 million in 12-2024 to $7748 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 4667 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 5932 | 27% |
| 12-2026 | 6062 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 6309 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 6435 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 6620 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 6752 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 7063 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 7204 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 7504 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 7748 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 12-2024 to 6% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (42) | -1% |
| 12-2025 | 12 | 0% |
| 12-2026 | 97 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 187 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 277 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 372 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 379 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 397 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 405 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 422 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 435 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $69 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 81 |
| 12-2026 | 92 |
| 12-2027 | 98 |
| 12-2028 | 86 |
| 12-2029 | 84 |
| 12-2030 | 86 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 35 |
| Days Inventory | 69 |
| Days Payables | 39 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 24 | 1 | 20 | 63 | (59) |
| 2026 | 213 | 24 | 81 | (43) | 151 |
| 2027 | 332 | 47 | 85 | 48 | 153 |
| 2028 | 433 | 69 | 86 | 20 | 258 |
| 2029 | 549 | 93 | 89 | 10 | 358 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 379.24 | 1235.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 509.15 | 1692.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 98.66 | 247.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 177.12 | 523.7% |
Is BE Group AB (publ) (BEGR.ST) a buy or a sell? BE Group AB (publ) is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, BE Group AB (publ) (BEGR.ST) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 1692.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $28.40.