What is BEGR.ST's DCF valuation?

BE Group AB (publ) (BEGR.ST) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, BE Group AB (publ) has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $509.15 per share. With the current market price at $28.40, this represents a potential upside of 1692.8%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $379.24
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $509.15
Potential Upside (5-year) 1235.4%
Potential Upside (10-year) 1692.8%
Discount Rate (WACC) 3.9% - 6.0%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $4667 million in 12-2024 to $7748 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.2%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2024 4667 12%
12-2025 5932 27%
12-2026 6062 2%
12-2027 6309 4%
12-2028 6435 2%
12-2029 6620 3%
12-2030 6752 2%
12-2031 7063 5%
12-2032 7204 2%
12-2033 7504 4%
12-2034 7748 3%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1% in 12-2024 to 6% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2024 (42) -1%
12-2025 12 0%
12-2026 97 2%
12-2027 187 3%
12-2028 277 4%
12-2029 372 6%
12-2030 379 6%
12-2031 397 6%
12-2032 405 6%
12-2033 422 6%
12-2034 435 6%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $69 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2025 81
12-2026 92
12-2027 98
12-2028 86
12-2029 84
12-2030 86

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 35
Days Inventory 69
Days Payables 39

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
3M/2025 24 1 20 63 (59)
2026 213 24 81 (43) 151
2027 332 47 85 48 153
2028 433 69 86 20 258
2029 549 93 89 10 358

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 3.9% - 6.0%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 1.0% - 3.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 5.1x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 379.24 1235.4%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 509.15 1692.8%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 98.66 247.4%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 177.12 523.7%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $8,043M
  • 10-Year Model: $10,576M

Investment Conclusion

Is BE Group AB (publ) (BEGR.ST) a buy or a sell? BE Group AB (publ) is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, BE Group AB (publ) (BEGR.ST) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 1692.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -1% to 6%)
  • Steady revenue growth (5.2% CAGR)

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $28.40.