As of May 25, 2025, BioDelivery Sciences International Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $12.40 per share. With the current market price at $5.59, this represents a potential upside of 121.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $6.52 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $12.40 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 16.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 121.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $167 million in 12-2021 to $758 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 167 | 7% |
| 12-2022 | 214 | 29% |
| 12-2023 | 264 | 23% |
| 12-2024 | 339 | 28% |
| 12-2025 | 412 | 22% |
| 12-2026 | 486 | 18% |
| 12-2027 | 555 | 14% |
| 12-2028 | 607 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 657 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 708 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 758 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 51% in 12-2021 to 13% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 85 | 51% |
| 12-2022 | 28 | 13% |
| 12-2023 | 34 | 13% |
| 12-2024 | 44 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 53 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 63 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 72 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 79 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 85 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 92 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 98 | 13% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 0 |
| 12-2023 | 0 |
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 121 |
| Days Inventory | 273 |
| Days Payables | 129 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 27 |
| 2023 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
| 2024 | 76 | 16 | 0 | 32 | 27 |
| 2025 | 92 | 20 | 0 | 26 | 45 |
| 2026 | 109 | 23 | 1 | 31 | 53 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.52 | 16.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 12.40 | 121.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.05 | 26.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 10.70 | 91.4% |
Is BioDelivery Sciences International Inc (BDSI) a buy or a sell? BioDelivery Sciences International Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, BioDelivery Sciences International Inc (BDSI) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 121.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $5.59.