What is BDEV.L's Intrinsic value?

Barratt Developments P L C (BDEV.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Barratt Developments P L C's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $191.25 to $568.16 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $370.17 -10.5%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $355.30 -14.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $338.80 -18.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $191.25 -53.8%
Earnings Power Value $568.16 +37.4%

Is Barratt Developments P L C (BDEV.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $413.60, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Barratt Developments P L C's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.81 1.11
Cost of equity 8.9% 12.8%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.6%
Tax rate 18.7% 19.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.04 0.04
After-tax WACC 8.6% 12.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 10.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $5,321 (FY06-2023) to $4,748 (FY06-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 10% to 11%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $355 $4,378M 58.3%
10-Year Growth $370 $4,590M 44.0%
5-Year EBITDA $384 $4,790M 61.9%
10-Year EBITDA $379 $4,722M 45.6%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 150.4%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $338.80 (-18.1% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.8% (Low) to 8.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $99 to $283
  • Selected fair value: $191.25 (-53.8% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $755M
Discount Rate (WACC) 12.4% - 8.6%
Enterprise Value $6,096M - $8,749M
Net Debt $(704)M
Equity Value $6,800M - $9,453M
Outstanding Shares 14M
Fair Value $475 - $661
Selected Fair Value $568.16

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $5916M
Enterprise Value $5212M
Trailing P/E 27.06
Forward P/E 15.53
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.40
Current Dividend Yield 555.65%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -5.47%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.04

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $111.05
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $88.82
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $67.76
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $28.69
Earnings Power Value 10% $56.82
Weighted Average 100% $353.14

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Barratt Developments P L C's intrinsic value is $353.14, which is approximately 14.6% below the current market price of $413.60.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (10% to 11% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.04)

Given these factors, we believe Barratt Developments P L C is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.