As of May 23, 2025, BMO Commercial Property Trust Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $70.14 per share. With the current market price at $95.80, this represents a potential upside of -26.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $64.91 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $70.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -32.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -26.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.6% - 9.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $59 million in 12-2023 to $73 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 59 | 1% |
| 12-2024 | 56 | -6% |
| 12-2025 | 55 | -2% |
| 12-2026 | 58 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 60 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 63 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 64 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 67 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 68 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 70 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 73 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -44% in 12-2023 to -44% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (26) | -44% |
| 12-2024 | (24) | -44% |
| 12-2025 | (24) | -44% |
| 12-2026 | (25) | -44% |
| 12-2027 | (26) | -44% |
| 12-2028 | (27) | -44% |
| 12-2029 | (28) | -44% |
| 12-2030 | (29) | -44% |
| 12-2031 | (30) | -44% |
| 12-2032 | (30) | -44% |
| 12-2033 | (32) | -44% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
| 12-2028 | 0 |
| 12-2029 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 31 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 21 | (0) | 0 | (1) | 23 |
| 2025 | 41 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 41 |
| 2026 | 44 | (0) | 0 | 1 | 43 |
| 2027 | 45 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 46 |
| 2028 | 47 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 47 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 64.91 | -32.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 70.14 | -26.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 53.58 | -44.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 61.22 | -36.1% |
Is BMO Commercial Property Trust Ltd (BCPT.L) a buy or a sell? BMO Commercial Property Trust Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, BMO Commercial Property Trust Ltd (BCPT.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -26.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $95.80.