What is BCI.L's DCF valuation?

BMO Capital and Income Investment Trust PLC (BCI.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, BMO Capital and Income Investment Trust PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $303.00, this represents a potential upside of 311.1%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) 270.9%
Potential Upside (10-year) 311.1%
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.5% - 11.0%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $102 million in 09-2021 to $143 million by 09-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
09-2021 102 250%
09-2022 107 4%
09-2023 111 4%
09-2024 113 2%
09-2025 117 4%
09-2026 120 2%
09-2027 124 4%
09-2028 127 2%
09-2029 132 4%
09-2030 139 5%
09-2031 143 3%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 98% in 09-2021 to 98% by 09-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
09-2021 100 98%
09-2022 105 98%
09-2023 108 98%
09-2024 111 98%
09-2025 115 98%
09-2026 117 98%
09-2027 122 98%
09-2028 124 98%
09-2029 129 98%
09-2030 136 98%
09-2031 140 98%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
09-2022 0
09-2023 0
09-2024 0
09-2025 0
09-2026 0
09-2027 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 7
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 29

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2022 52 0 0 1 52
2023 108 0 0 (1) 110
2024 111 0 0 1 110
2025 115 0 0 0 115
2026 117 0 0 (0) 117

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 8.5% - 11.0%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 0.0% - 1.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 3.7x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 270.9%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 311.1%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 621.57 105.1%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 872.76 188.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $1,221M
  • 10-Year Model: $1,350M

Investment Conclusion

Is BMO Capital and Income Investment Trust PLC (BCI.L) a buy or a sell? BMO Capital and Income Investment Trust PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, BMO Capital and Income Investment Trust PLC (BCI.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 311.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (3.4% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $303.00.