As of June 14, 2025, Baltic Classifieds Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $96.45 to $164.53 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $164.53 | -56.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $129.80 | -65.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $96.45 | -74.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $109.83 | -70.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $97.71 | -73.9% |
Is Baltic Classifieds Group PLC (BCG.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $374.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Baltic Classifieds Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.8 | 0.94 |
| Cost of equity | 8.8% | 11.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.4% | 4.6% |
| Tax rate | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.6% | 11.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $154 | $751M | 77.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $195 | $945M | 61.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $152 | $739M | 77.0% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $192 | $931M | 60.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $56M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 11.4% - 8.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $493M - $648M |
| Net Debt | $24M |
| Equity Value | $470M - $625M |
| Outstanding Shares | 5M |
| Fair Value | $100 - $132 |
| Selected Fair Value | $97.71 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1764M |
| Enterprise Value | $1784M |
| Trailing P/E | 54.55 |
| Forward P/E | 64.53 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 13.60 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 73.48% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.02 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $49.36 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $32.45 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $19.29 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $16.47 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $9.77 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $127.34 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Baltic Classifieds Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $127.34, which is approximately 66.0% below the current market price of $374.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Baltic Classifieds Group PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.