What is BBH.L's Intrinsic value?

BB Healthcare Trust PLC (BBH.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 18, 2025, BB Healthcare Trust PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $37.62 to $623.95 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $623.95 +415.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $594.68 +391.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $201.70 +66.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $217.21 +79.5%
Earnings Power Value $37.62 -68.9%

Is BB Healthcare Trust PLC (BBH.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $121.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate BB Healthcare Trust PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1.5 1.93
Cost of equity 13.0% 18.5%
Cost of debt 4.6% 4.6%
Tax rate 0.3% 0.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 8.8% 11.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 10.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $83 (FY11-2024) to $106 (FY11-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 89% to 89%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $595 $868M 62.5%
10-Year Growth $624 $924M 40.5%
5-Year EBITDA $421 $534M 39.1%
10-Year EBITDA $504 $694M 20.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 34.5%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 15.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $201.70 (66.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 18.5% (Low) to 13.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $146 to $289
  • Selected fair value: $217.21 (79.5% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $(20)M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.5% - 8.8%
Enterprise Value $(175)M - $(229)M
Net Debt $(274)M
Equity Value $99M - $45M
Outstanding Shares 2M
Fair Value $52 - $23
Selected Fair Value $37.62

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $232M
Enterprise Value $-42M
Trailing P/E 3.15
Forward P/E 3.02
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.00
Current Dividend Yield 1069.26%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 3.29%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.81

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $187.18
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $148.67
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $40.34
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $32.58
Earnings Power Value 10% $3.76
Weighted Average 100% $412.54

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, BB Healthcare Trust PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $412.54, which is approximately 240.9% above the current market price of $121.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (89% to 89% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 3.29%

Given these factors, we believe BB Healthcare Trust PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.