As of October 1, 2025, Bayer AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $38.59 per share. With the current market price at $28.23, this represents a potential upside of 36.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $24.02 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $38.59 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -14.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 36.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $46606 million in 12-2024 to $58525 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 46606 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 45758 | -2% |
| 12-2026 | 46674 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 47607 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 48559 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 49530 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 50927 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 52458 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 53507 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 55493 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 58525 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -5% in 12-2024 to 6% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (2,546) | -5% |
| 12-2025 | (1,113) | -2% |
| 12-2026 | (232) | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 638 | 1% |
| 12-2028 | 1498 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 2349 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 2576 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 2817 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 3038 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 3321 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 3679 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $2701 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2754 |
| 12-2026 | 2779 |
| 12-2027 | 2748 |
| 12-2028 | 2767 |
| 12-2029 | 2792 |
| 12-2030 | 2853 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 72 |
| Days Inventory | 246 |
| Days Payables | 135 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 1441 | (67) | 1341 | 80 | 87 |
| 2026 | 3922 | (28) | 2736 | (110) | 1324 |
| 2027 | 4893 | 77 | 2791 | (164) | 2189 |
| 2028 | 5906 | 181 | 2847 | 157 | 2721 |
| 2029 | 6914 | 284 | 2904 | (20) | 3746 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 24.02 | -14.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 38.59 | 36.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 11.64 | -58.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 24.51 | -13.2% |
Is Bayer AG (BAYN.DE) a buy or a sell? Bayer AG is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Bayer AG (BAYN.DE) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 36.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $28.23.