As of June 17, 2025, Barry Callebaut AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $499.90 per share. With the current market price at $880.50, this represents a potential upside of -43.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $483.77 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $499.90 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -45.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -43.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.1% - 5.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $10386 million in 08-2024 to $17140 million by 08-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2024 | 10386 | 23% |
| 08-2025 | 11189 | 8% |
| 08-2026 | 11518 | 3% |
| 08-2027 | 12384 | 8% |
| 08-2028 | 12973 | 5% |
| 08-2029 | 13382 | 3% |
| 08-2030 | 13939 | 4% |
| 08-2031 | 14284 | 2% |
| 08-2032 | 14862 | 4% |
| 08-2033 | 16010 | 8% |
| 08-2034 | 17140 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 08-2024 to 2% by 08-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2024 | 191 | 2% |
| 08-2025 | 213 | 2% |
| 08-2026 | 219 | 2% |
| 08-2027 | 236 | 2% |
| 08-2028 | 247 | 2% |
| 08-2029 | 254 | 2% |
| 08-2030 | 265 | 2% |
| 08-2031 | 272 | 2% |
| 08-2032 | 283 | 2% |
| 08-2033 | 304 | 2% |
| 08-2034 | 326 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $272 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 08-2025 | 291 |
| 08-2026 | 314 |
| 08-2027 | 343 |
| 08-2028 | 382 |
| 08-2029 | 415 |
| 08-2030 | 434 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 29 |
| Days Inventory | 169 |
| Days Payables | 65 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 379 | 22 | 189 | (567) | 735 |
| 2026 | 795 | 46 | 389 | 482 | (122) |
| 2027 | 860 | 49 | 419 | 595 | (204) |
| 2028 | 923 | 52 | 439 | (116) | 550 |
| 2029 | 974 | 53 | 452 | 276 | 193 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 483.77 | -45.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 499.90 | -43.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Barry Callebaut AG (BARN.SW) a buy or a sell? Barry Callebaut AG is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Barry Callebaut AG (BARN.SW) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -43.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $880.50.