As of April 4, 2026, Autozone Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1819.14 to $4924.04 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $4924.04 | +44.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $4191.95 | +23.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $2822.44 | -17.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $2801.40 | -17.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $1819.14 | -46.5% |
Is Autozone Inc (AZO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $3400.54, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Autozone Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| Cost of equity | 6.2% | 7.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.8% |
| Tax rate | 20.3% | 20.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.8% | 7.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $4,192 | $77,587M | 81.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $4,924 | $89,681M | 67.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $2,988 | $57,702M | 75.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $3,789 | $70,928M | 58.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $2,491M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.3% - 5.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $33,965M - $42,811M |
| Net Debt | $8,335M |
| Equity Value | $25,629M - $34,475M |
| Outstanding Shares | 17M |
| Fair Value | $1,551 - $2,087 |
| Selected Fair Value | $1819.14 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $56177M |
| Enterprise Value | $64512M |
| Trailing P/E | 22.98 |
| Forward P/E | 20.79 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.95 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.16 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $1477.21 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $1047.99 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $564.49 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $420.21 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $181.91 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $3691.81 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Autozone Inc's intrinsic value is $3691.81, which is approximately 8.6% above the current market price of $3400.54.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Autozone Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.