As of June 12, 2025, AstraZeneca PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -28.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -45.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -28.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.8% - 10.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $54073 million in 12-2024 to $110886 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 54073 | 18% |
| 12-2025 | 57950 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 64489 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 69609 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 77458 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 86173 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 91226 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 95787 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 100577 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 105606 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 110886 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 13% in 12-2024 to 14% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 7041 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 7644 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 8688 | 13% |
| 12-2027 | 9570 | 14% |
| 12-2028 | 10858 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 12307 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 13029 | 14% |
| 12-2031 | 13680 | 14% |
| 12-2032 | 14364 | 14% |
| 12-2033 | 15083 | 14% |
| 12-2034 | 15837 | 14% |
with a 5-year average of $3148 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 3512 |
| 12-2026 | 4058 |
| 12-2027 | 4607 |
| 12-2028 | 5035 |
| 12-2029 | 5434 |
| 12-2030 | 5943 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 66 |
| Days Inventory | 215 |
| Days Payables | 131 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 10596 | 1408 | 3320 | 1116 | 4752 |
| 2026 | 16097 | 2133 | 4926 | 1552 | 7484 |
| 2027 | 17841 | 2350 | 5318 | 688 | 9485 |
| 2028 | 20021 | 2666 | 5917 | 1862 | 9575 |
| 2029 | 22390 | 3022 | 6583 | 1832 | 10953 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -45.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -28.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5807.43 | +Inf% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7207.98 | +Inf% |
Is AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.L) a buy or a sell? AstraZeneca PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -28.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.