As of June 7, 2025, Alteryx Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $48.26, this represents a potential upside of -270.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -253.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -270.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 10.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $970 million in 12-2023 to $2920 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 970 | 13% |
| 12-2024 | 1077 | 11% |
| 12-2025 | 1227 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 1433 | 17% |
| 12-2027 | 1608 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 1796 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 1973 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 2197 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 2412 | 10% |
| 12-2032 | 2676 | 11% |
| 12-2033 | 2920 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -18% in 12-2023 to -13% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (179) | -18% |
| 12-2024 | (170) | -16% |
| 12-2025 | (186) | -15% |
| 12-2026 | (209) | -15% |
| 12-2027 | (226) | -14% |
| 12-2028 | (243) | -14% |
| 12-2029 | (265) | -13% |
| 12-2030 | (293) | -13% |
| 12-2031 | (319) | -13% |
| 12-2032 | (351) | -13% |
| 12-2033 | (381) | -13% |
with a 5-year average of $19 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 25 |
| 12-2025 | 28 |
| 12-2026 | 31 |
| 12-2027 | 37 |
| 12-2028 | 49 |
| 12-2029 | 55 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 140 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 36 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | (108) | (11) | 37 | 39 | (174) |
| 2025 | (115) | (12) | 42 | 52 | (198) |
| 2026 | (127) | (13) | 49 | 80 | (244) |
| 2027 | (131) | (14) | 55 | 65 | (237) |
| 2028 | (129) | (15) | 62 | 69 | (245) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -253.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -270.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Alteryx Inc (AYX) a buy or a sell? Alteryx Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Alteryx Inc (AYX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -270.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $48.26.