As of April 5, 2026, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $48.20 per share. With the current market price at $26.82, this represents a potential upside of 79.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $40.19 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $48.20 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 49.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 79.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 8.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $5117 million in 12-2025 to $8375 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 5117 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 5371 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 5545 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 5935 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 6244 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 6567 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 6908 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 7334 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 7781 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 8150 | 5% |
| 12-2035 | 8375 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 7% in 12-2025 to 8% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 379 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 434 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 448 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 479 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 504 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 530 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 558 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 592 | 8% |
| 12-2033 | 628 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 658 | 8% |
| 12-2035 | 676 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $149 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 157 |
| 12-2027 | 160 |
| 12-2028 | 168 |
| 12-2029 | 178 |
| 12-2030 | 178 |
| 12-2031 | 187 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 75 |
| Days Inventory | 78 |
| Days Payables | 65 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 931 | 139 | 161 | (2) | 632 |
| 2027 | 959 | 144 | 166 | 52 | 597 |
| 2028 | 1023 | 154 | 178 | 105 | 586 |
| 2029 | 1077 | 162 | 187 | 57 | 671 |
| 2030 | 1124 | 170 | 197 | 80 | 677 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 40.19 | 49.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 48.20 | 79.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 29.89 | 11.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 37.99 | 41.7% |
Is Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA) a buy or a sell? Axalta Coating Systems Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 79.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $26.82.