What is AXR's Intrinsic value?

AMREP Corp (AXR) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, AMREP Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $26.61 to $38.05 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $38.05 +88.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $34.87 +73.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $26.61 +32.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $36.58 +81.4%
Earnings Power Value $27.16 +34.7%

Is AMREP Corp (AXR) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $20.16, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate AMREP Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.74 0.88
Cost of equity 7.3% 9.8%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 23.8% 26.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 0 0
After-tax WACC 7.3% 9.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $50 (FY04-2025) to $73 (FY04-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 26% to 25%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $35 $136M 70.0%
10-Year Growth $38 $153M 53.5%
5-Year EBITDA $34 $131M 68.8%
10-Year EBITDA $37 $150M 52.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $26.61 (32.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.8% (Low) to 7.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $20 to $53
  • Selected fair value: $36.58 (81.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $8M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.8% - 7.3%
Enterprise Value $81M - $110M
Net Debt $(49)M
Equity Value $130M - $158M
Outstanding Shares 5M
Fair Value $24 - $30
Selected Fair Value $27.16

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $107M
Enterprise Value $58M
Trailing P/E 8.02
Forward P/E 10.80
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.05
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.00

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $11.41
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $8.72
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $5.32
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $5.49
Earnings Power Value 10% $2.72
Weighted Average 100% $33.66

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, AMREP Corp's intrinsic value is $33.66, which is approximately 66.9% above the current market price of $20.16.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (26% to 25% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.00)

Given these factors, we believe AMREP Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.