As of June 8, 2025, AMREP Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $28.22 per share. With the current market price at $21.31, this represents a potential upside of 32.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $28.22 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -146.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 32.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.4% - 9.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $51 million in 04-2024 to $232 million by 04-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 51 | 5% |
| 04-2025 | 65 | 26% |
| 04-2026 | 83 | 28% |
| 04-2027 | 100 | 20% |
| 04-2028 | 121 | 21% |
| 04-2029 | 144 | 19% |
| 04-2030 | 162 | 13% |
| 04-2031 | 183 | 13% |
| 04-2032 | 199 | 9% |
| 04-2033 | 217 | 9% |
| 04-2034 | 232 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 13% in 04-2024 to 17% by 04-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 7 | 13% |
| 04-2025 | 9 | 13% |
| 04-2026 | 12 | 14% |
| 04-2027 | 15 | 15% |
| 04-2028 | 20 | 16% |
| 04-2029 | 25 | 17% |
| 04-2030 | 28 | 17% |
| 04-2031 | 32 | 17% |
| 04-2032 | 34 | 17% |
| 04-2033 | 37 | 17% |
| 04-2034 | 40 | 17% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 04-2025 | 0 |
| 04-2026 | 1 |
| 04-2027 | 0 |
| 04-2028 | 1 |
| 04-2029 | 1 |
| 04-2030 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 739 |
| Days Payables | 26 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | (4) |
| 2026 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 22 | (11) |
| 2027 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 15 | (2) |
| 2028 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 27 | (10) |
| 2029 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 25 | (3) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -146.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 28.22 | 32.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 22.85 | 7.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 32.65 | 53.2% |
Is AMREP Corp (AXR) a buy or a sell? AMREP Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, AMREP Corp (AXR) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 32.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $21.31.