As of December 15, 2025, Axon Enterprise Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $564.28, this represents a potential upside of -111.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -118.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -111.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 10.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2083 million in 12-2024 to $13942 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2083 | 33% |
| 12-2025 | 2832 | 36% |
| 12-2026 | 3593 | 27% |
| 12-2027 | 4449 | 24% |
| 12-2028 | 5591 | 26% |
| 12-2029 | 6701 | 20% |
| 12-2030 | 7956 | 19% |
| 12-2031 | 9349 | 18% |
| 12-2032 | 10811 | 16% |
| 12-2033 | 12379 | 15% |
| 12-2034 | 13942 | 13% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 18% in 12-2024 to 22% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 377 | 18% |
| 12-2025 | 431 | 15% |
| 12-2026 | 599 | 17% |
| 12-2027 | 802 | 18% |
| 12-2028 | 1081 | 19% |
| 12-2029 | 1378 | 21% |
| 12-2030 | 1654 | 21% |
| 12-2031 | 1966 | 21% |
| 12-2032 | 2298 | 21% |
| 12-2033 | 2659 | 21% |
| 12-2034 | 3026 | 22% |
with a 5-year average of $64 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 82 |
| 12-2026 | 113 |
| 12-2027 | 153 |
| 12-2028 | 206 |
| 12-2029 | 268 |
| 12-2030 | 327 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 165 |
| Days Inventory | 146 |
| Days Payables | 39 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 55 | 36 | 41 | 122 | (145) |
| 2026 | 355 | 201 | 208 | 383 | (436) |
| 2027 | 534 | 269 | 257 | 420 | (412) |
| 2028 | 781 | 363 | 323 | 626 | (531) |
| 2029 | 1067 | 462 | 387 | 555 | (337) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -118.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -111.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 139.55 | -75.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 258.96 | -54.1% |
Is Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) a buy or a sell? Axon Enterprise Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -111.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $564.28.