As of December 15, 2025, Avenir Telecom SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.03, this represents a potential upside of -10997.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -12366.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -10997.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.5% - 5.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $11 million in 03-2025 to $16 million by 03-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 11 | 22% |
| 03-2026 | 12 | 6% |
| 03-2027 | 12 | 2% |
| 03-2028 | 12 | 3% |
| 03-2029 | 12 | 2% |
| 03-2030 | 13 | 6% |
| 03-2031 | 14 | 3% |
| 03-2032 | 14 | 3% |
| 03-2033 | 14 | 2% |
| 03-2034 | 15 | 6% |
| 03-2035 | 16 | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -79% in 03-2025 to -37% by 03-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | (9) | -79% |
| 03-2026 | (6) | -54% |
| 03-2027 | (6) | -50% |
| 03-2028 | (6) | -47% |
| 03-2029 | (5) | -43% |
| 03-2030 | (5) | -40% |
| 03-2031 | (5) | -40% |
| 03-2032 | (5) | -39% |
| 03-2033 | (5) | -38% |
| 03-2034 | (6) | -38% |
| 03-2035 | (6) | -37% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2026 | 0 |
| 03-2027 | 0 |
| 03-2028 | 0 |
| 03-2029 | 0 |
| 03-2030 | 0 |
| 03-2031 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 7 |
| Days Inventory | 108 |
| Days Payables | 37 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | (8) | (2) | 0 | 1 | (7) |
| 2027 | (8) | (2) | 0 | (0) | (6) |
| 2028 | (8) | (2) | 0 | (0) | (5) |
| 2029 | (7) | (2) | 0 | 0 | (5) |
| 2030 | (7) | (2) | 0 | (0) | (5) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -12366.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -10997.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Avenir Telecom SA (AVT.PA) a buy or a sell? Avenir Telecom SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Avenir Telecom SA (AVT.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -10997.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.03.