As of May 23, 2025, Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $2.85, this represents a potential upside of 0.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 0.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 0.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | - |
Revenue is projected to grow from $351 million in 12-2021 to $3228 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 24.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 351 | 623% |
| 12-2022 | 2569 | 631% |
| 12-2023 | 2621 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 2727 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 2781 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 2837 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 2928 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 3037 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 3098 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 3160 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 3228 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 34% in 12-2021 to 29% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 121 | 34% |
| 12-2022 | 740 | 29% |
| 12-2023 | 755 | 29% |
| 12-2024 | 785 | 29% |
| 12-2025 | 801 | 29% |
| 12-2026 | 817 | 29% |
| 12-2027 | 843 | 29% |
| 12-2028 | 874 | 29% |
| 12-2029 | 892 | 29% |
| 12-2030 | 910 | 29% |
| 12-2031 | 929 | 29% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 0 |
| 12-2023 | 0 |
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 15 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2022 | 253 | 68 | 0 | 27 | 158 |
| 2023 | 1032 | 279 | 0 | 37 | 716 |
| 2024 | 1074 | 290 | 0 | (55) | 838 |
| 2025 | 1095 | 296 | 0 | 30 | 769 |
| 2026 | 1117 | 302 | 0 | 4 | 811 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 127.44 | 4371.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 136.42 | 4686.7% |
Is Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR) a buy or a sell? Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVIR) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of 0.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $2.85.