As of February 10, 2026, Avinger Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.47, this represents a potential upside of -36410.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -38165.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -36410.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.3% - 6.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $8 million in 12-2023 to $9 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 8 | 7% |
| 12-2024 | 7 | -7% |
| 12-2025 | 7 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 7 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 8 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 8 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 8 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 8 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 8 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 9 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 9 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -239% in 12-2023 to -161% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (18) | -239% |
| 12-2024 | (12) | -172% |
| 12-2025 | (12) | -170% |
| 12-2026 | (12) | -167% |
| 12-2027 | (13) | -165% |
| 12-2028 | (13) | -163% |
| 12-2029 | (13) | -162% |
| 12-2030 | (13) | -162% |
| 12-2031 | (13) | -161% |
| 12-2032 | (14) | -161% |
| 12-2033 | (14) | -161% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
| 12-2028 | 0 |
| 12-2029 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 48 |
| Days Inventory | 305 |
| Days Payables | 56 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2024 | (4) | (1) | 0 | (0) | (2) |
| 2025 | (15) | (5) | 0 | 0 | (11) |
| 2026 | (15) | (5) | 0 | (0) | (11) |
| 2027 | (15) | (5) | 0 | (0) | (11) |
| 2028 | (16) | (5) | 0 | 0 | (11) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -38165.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -36410.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Avinger Inc (AVGR) a buy or a sell? Avinger Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Avinger Inc (AVGR) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -36410.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.47.