What is AVGO's Intrinsic value?

Broadcom Inc (AVGO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 24, 2025, Broadcom Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $36.48 to $85.40 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $85.40 -66.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $61.07 -75.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $48.85 -80.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $44.77 -82.4%
Earnings Power Value $36.48 -85.6%

Is Broadcom Inc (AVGO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $253.77, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Broadcom Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1.05 1.2
Cost of equity 8.7% 11.6%
Cost of debt 4.8% 4.9%
Tax rate 7.2% 13.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.06 0.06
After-tax WACC 8.5% 11.2%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $51,574 (FY11-2024) to $133,742 (FY11-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 12% to 27%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $61 $344,950M 78.4%
10-Year Growth $85 $459,358M 63.4%
5-Year EBITDA $66 $368,874M 79.8%
10-Year EBITDA $90 $482,759M 65.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 81.2%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $48.85 (-80.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.6% (Low) to 8.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $22 to $67
  • Selected fair value: $44.77 (-82.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $22,096M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.2% - 8.5%
Enterprise Value $197,338M - $261,371M
Net Debt $57,810M
Equity Value $139,528M - $203,561M
Outstanding Shares 4,702M
Fair Value $30 - $43
Selected Fair Value $36.48

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1193214M
Enterprise Value $1251024M
Trailing P/E 92.38
Forward P/E 103.38
Trailing EV/EBITDA 16.90
Current Dividend Yield 89.29%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 15.40%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.06

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $25.62
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $15.27
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $9.77
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $6.72
Earnings Power Value 10% $3.65
Weighted Average 100% $61.02

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Broadcom Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $61.02, which is approximately 76.0% below the current market price of $253.77.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (12% to 27% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.06)
  • Historical dividend growth of 15.40%

Given these factors, we believe Broadcom Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.