As of June 26, 2025, Avensia AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $9.21 to $17.44 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $17.44 | +44.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $14.10 | +16.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $9.21 | -23.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $13.17 | +8.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $12.86 | +6.2% |
Is Avensia AB (AVEN.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $12.10, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Avensia AB's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Cost of equity | 6.0% | 7.9% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 17.0% | 21.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.7% | 7.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $14 | $471M | 81.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $17 | $595M | 69.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $10 | $320M | 72.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $13 | $428M | 56.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $27M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.3% - 5.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $372M - $477M |
| Net Debt | $(53)M |
| Equity Value | $425M - $530M |
| Outstanding Shares | 37M |
| Fair Value | $11 - $14 |
| Selected Fair Value | $12.86 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $449M |
| Enterprise Value | $396M |
| Trailing P/E | 18.59 |
| Forward P/E | 23.84 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.95 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -100.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.16 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $5.23 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $3.53 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $1.84 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $1.98 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.29 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $13.86 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Avensia AB's weighted average intrinsic value is $13.86, which is approximately 14.6% above the current market price of $12.10.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Avensia AB is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.