What is AVE.AT's Intrinsic value?

Ave SA (AVE.AT) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 21, 2025, Ave SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.31 to $0.31 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $0.31 -44.7%

Is Ave SA (AVE.AT) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.57, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Ave SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.3% 3.8%
Equity market risk premium 8.8% 9.8%
Adjusted beta 0.32 0.36
Cost of equity 6.1% 7.8%
Cost of debt 4.2% 7.0%
Tax rate 11.3% 17.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.38 0.38
After-tax WACC 5.5% 7.3%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $5M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.3% - 5.5%
Enterprise Value $73M - $97M
Net Debt $29M
Equity Value $44M - $68M
Outstanding Shares 178M
Fair Value $0 - $0
Selected Fair Value $0.31

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $101M
Enterprise Value $130M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 1.35
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.38

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.03
Weighted Average 100% $0.31

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Ave SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.31, which is approximately 44.7% below the current market price of $0.57.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-47% to -32% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Ave SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.