As of June 3, 2025, American Vanguard Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $15.05 to $25.62 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $25.62 | +455.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $20.12 | +336.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $16.76 | +263.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $15.05 | +226.5% |
Is American Vanguard Corp (AVD) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $4.61, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate American Vanguard Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.4 | 0.66 |
| Cost of equity | 5.7% | 8.5% |
| Cost of debt | 7.0% | 9.3% |
| Tax rate | 25.7% | 27.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.5% | 7.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $20 | $746M | 83.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $26 | $904M | 68.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $13 | $529M | 77.1% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $17 | $667M | 57.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $38M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.7% - 5.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $499M - $701M |
| Net Debt | $167M |
| Equity Value | $332M - $534M |
| Outstanding Shares | 29M |
| Fair Value | $12 - $19 |
| Selected Fair Value | $15.05 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $133M |
| Enterprise Value | $300M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 10.06 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.20 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 236.08% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 9.90% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.98 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $7.69 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $5.03 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $3.35 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $1.50 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $20.67 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, American Vanguard Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $20.67, which is approximately 348.4% above the current market price of $4.61.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe American Vanguard Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.