As of May 25, 2025, Autoneum Holding AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $293.98 per share. With the current market price at $143.40, this represents a potential upside of 105.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $259.83 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $293.98 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 81.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 105.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.6% - 6.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2339 million in 12-2024 to $3194 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2339 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 2518 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 2596 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 2648 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 2701 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 2857 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 2914 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 2973 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 3032 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 3093 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 3194 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2024 to 3% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 70 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 75 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 78 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 79 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 81 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 86 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 87 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 89 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 91 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 93 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 96 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $51 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 55 |
| 12-2026 | 62 |
| 12-2027 | 67 |
| 12-2028 | 69 |
| 12-2029 | 68 |
| 12-2030 | 70 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 51 |
| Days Inventory | 60 |
| Days Payables | 67 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 186 | 27 | 64 | 56 | 40 |
| 2026 | 196 | 28 | 66 | (4) | 107 |
| 2027 | 204 | 28 | 67 | 5 | 105 |
| 2028 | 209 | 29 | 69 | 13 | 99 |
| 2029 | 216 | 30 | 72 | 16 | 97 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 259.83 | 81.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 293.98 | 105.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 122.37 | -14.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 169.87 | 18.5% |
Is Autoneum Holding AG (AUTN.SW) a buy or a sell? Autoneum Holding AG is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Autoneum Holding AG (AUTN.SW) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 105.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $143.40.