As of May 27, 2025, Autins Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $12.08 per share. With the current market price at $7.00, this represents a potential upside of 72.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $5.97 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $12.08 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -14.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 72.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.6% - 9.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $23 million in 09-2023 to $32 million by 09-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2023 | 23 | 20% |
| 09-2024 | 24 | 5% |
| 09-2025 | 25 | 4% |
| 09-2026 | 26 | 3% |
| 09-2027 | 26 | 2% |
| 09-2028 | 27 | 5% |
| 09-2029 | 28 | 2% |
| 09-2030 | 29 | 4% |
| 09-2031 | 30 | 4% |
| 09-2032 | 31 | 2% |
| 09-2033 | 32 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -4% in 09-2023 to 2% by 09-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2023 | (1) | -4% |
| 09-2024 | (1) | -3% |
| 09-2025 | (0) | -2% |
| 09-2026 | (0) | 0% |
| 09-2027 | 0 | 1% |
| 09-2028 | 1 | 2% |
| 09-2029 | 1 | 2% |
| 09-2030 | 1 | 2% |
| 09-2031 | 1 | 2% |
| 09-2032 | 1 | 2% |
| 09-2033 | 1 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 0 |
| 09-2025 | 0 |
| 09-2026 | 0 |
| 09-2027 | 0 |
| 09-2028 | 0 |
| 09-2029 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 51 |
| Days Inventory | 57 |
| Days Payables | 47 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0M/2024 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 1 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| 2026 | 1 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 1 |
| 2027 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2028 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 5.97 | -14.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 12.08 | 72.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 6.81 | -2.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 11.92 | 70.3% |
Is Autins Group PLC (AUTG.L) a buy or a sell? Autins Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Autins Group PLC (AUTG.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 72.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $7.00.