As of May 22, 2025, Augean PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $374.60 per share. With the current market price at $371.00, this represents a potential upside of 1.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $287.61 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $374.60 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -22.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 1.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $92 million in 12-2020 to $193 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 92 | 14% |
| 12-2021 | 96 | 4% |
| 12-2022 | 107 | 12% |
| 12-2023 | 116 | 8% |
| 12-2024 | 135 | 16% |
| 12-2025 | 148 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 157 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 167 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 175 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 184 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 193 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 14% in 12-2020 to 14% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 13 | 14% |
| 12-2021 | 14 | 14% |
| 12-2022 | 15 | 14% |
| 12-2023 | 17 | 14% |
| 12-2024 | 20 | 14% |
| 12-2025 | 21 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 23 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 24 | 14% |
| 12-2028 | 25 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 27 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 28 | 14% |
with a 5-year average of $7 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 7 |
| 12-2022 | 7 |
| 12-2023 | 8 |
| 12-2024 | 9 |
| 12-2025 | 10 |
| 12-2026 | 11 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 74 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 2022 | 27 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| 2023 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 16 |
| 2024 | 35 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 2025 | 38 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 19 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 287.61 | -22.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 374.60 | 1.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 171.17 | -53.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 235.69 | -36.5% |
Is Augean PLC (AUG.L) a buy or a sell? Augean PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Augean PLC (AUG.L) appears to be slightly undervalued with upside potential of 1.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold with potential to accumulate at the current market price of $371.00.