What is AUD's Intrinsic value?

Audacy Inc (AUD) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of September 4, 2025, Audacy Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $3.32 to $3.32 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $3.32 +3451.3%

Is Audacy Inc (AUD) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.09, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Audacy Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.2% 4.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.0% 6.0%
Adjusted beta 17.96 22.5
Cost of equity 94.0% 140.2%
Cost of debt 5.3% 18.2%
Tax rate 19.1% 23.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 138.09 138.09
After-tax WACC 4.9% 14.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,254 (FY12-2022) to $1,883 (FY12-2032)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -11% to 6%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 5% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $(1,234) $1,664M 82.7%
10-Year Growth $3 $2,324M 65.1%
5-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $1,108M 74.1%
10-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $1,641M 50.6%

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $14M
Enterprise Value $1854M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.85
Current Dividend Yield 47.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -100.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 138.09

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 100% $1.00
Weighted Average 100% $3.32

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Audacy Inc's intrinsic value is $3.32, which is approximately 3451.3% above the current market price of $0.09.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-11% to 6% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Audacy Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.