What is ATUS's Intrinsic value?

Altice USA Inc (ATUS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, Altice USA Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.11 to $108.84 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $6.79 +187.6%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $2.72 +15.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $1.11 -52.8%
Earnings Power Value $108.84 +4512.0%

Is Altice USA Inc (ATUS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2.36, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Altice USA Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1.54 2.3
Cost of equity 10.9% 17.7%
Cost of debt 5.4% 15.6%
Tax rate 23.4% 27.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 22.7 22.7
After-tax WACC 4.4% 11.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.0% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $8,954 (FY12-2024) to $10,686 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -1% to 2%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 15% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $3 $26,293M 71.7%
10-Year Growth $7 $28,195M 52.2%
5-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $22,715M 67.3%
10-Year EBITDA $1 $25,394M 46.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 14.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0%
  • Fair value: $1.11 (-52.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 17.7% (Low) to 10.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5% (Low) to 1.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(1) to $(3)
  • Selected fair value: $-2.29 (-197.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $4,847M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.6% - 4.4%
Enterprise Value $41,868M - $109,991M
Net Debt $25,021M
Equity Value $16,847M - $84,971M
Outstanding Shares 468M
Fair Value $36 - $182
Selected Fair Value $108.84

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1104M
Enterprise Value $26124M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.60
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 22.70

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $2.04
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $0.68
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $0.22
Earnings Power Value 12% $10.88
Weighted Average 100% $16.26

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Altice USA Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $16.26, which is approximately 589.1% above the current market price of $2.36.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-1% to 2% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Altice USA Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.