What is ATT.L's Intrinsic value?

Allianz Technology Trust PLC (ATT.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Allianz Technology Trust PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $410.05 to $1409.97 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1120.38 +183.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $967.65 +144.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $410.05 +3.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1409.97 +256.5%
Earnings Power Value $947.57 +139.6%

Is Allianz Technology Trust PLC (ATT.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $395.50, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Allianz Technology Trust PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.9% 3.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.3% 6.3%
Adjusted beta 1.67 1.77
Cost of equity 11.8% 15.2%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 0.3% 0.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 8.4% 10.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.2% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $249 (FY12-2021) to $400 (FY12-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 96% to 96%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $823 $3,190M 65.7%
10-Year Growth $952 $3,701M 46.6%
5-Year EBITDA $661 $2,210M 50.4%
10-Year EBITDA $866 $2,895M 31.7%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 13.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $410.05 (3.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 15.2% (Low) to 11.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $857 to $1,540
  • Selected fair value: $1409.97 (256.5% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $286M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.1% - 8.4%
Enterprise Value $2,843M - $3,403M
Net Debt $(46)M
Equity Value $2,889M - $3,449M
Outstanding Shares 4M
Fair Value $734 - $877
Selected Fair Value $947.57

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1323M
Enterprise Value $1323M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 5.29
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.10
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.11

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $336.11
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $241.91
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $82.01
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $211.50
Earnings Power Value 10% $94.76
Weighted Average 100% $966.29

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Allianz Technology Trust PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $966.29, which is approximately 144.3% above the current market price of $395.50.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (96% to 96% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Allianz Technology Trust PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.