What is ATST.L's Intrinsic value?

Alliance Trust PLC (ATST.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Alliance Trust PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $781.16 to $1892.73 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1892.73 +48.6%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1702.11 +33.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $1237.45 -2.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1263.74 -0.8%
Earnings Power Value $781.16 -38.7%

Is Alliance Trust PLC (ATST.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1274.00, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Alliance Trust PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.92 0.98
Cost of equity 9.5% 11.9%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.6%
Tax rate 0.7% 0.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.05 0.05
After-tax WACC 9.3% 11.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 10.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $639 (FY12-2023) to $889 (FY12-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 94% to 94%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1,702 $6,833M 64.9%
10-Year Growth $1,893 $7,581M 42.5%
5-Year EBITDA $1,721 $6,906M 65.3%
10-Year EBITDA $1,906 $7,634M 42.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 12.1%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $1237.45 (-2.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.9% (Low) to 9.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $905 to $1,622
  • Selected fair value: $1263.74 (-0.8% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $331M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.5% - 9.3%
Enterprise Value $2,867M - $3,569M
Net Debt $152M
Equity Value $2,715M - $3,417M
Outstanding Shares 4M
Fair Value $692 - $871
Selected Fair Value $781.16

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $5001M
Enterprise Value $5152M
Trailing P/E 8.31
Forward P/E 8.10
Trailing EV/EBITDA 10.25
Current Dividend Yield 145.65%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 11.76%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.05

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $567.82
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $425.53
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $247.49
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $189.56
Earnings Power Value 10% $78.12
Weighted Average 100% $1508.51

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Alliance Trust PLC's intrinsic value is $1508.51, which is approximately 18.4% above the current market price of $1274.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (94% to 94% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.05)
  • Historical dividend growth of 11.76%

Given these factors, we believe Alliance Trust PLC is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.