As of June 13, 2025, Australis Oil & Gas Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.01, this represents a potential upside of -1667.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2369.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1667.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.7% - 6.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $19 million in 12-2024 to $21 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 19 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 16 | -17% |
| 12-2026 | 16 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 17 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 18 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 18 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 19 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 19 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 20 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 20 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 21 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -43% in 12-2024 to -14% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (8) | -43% |
| 12-2025 | (4) | -27% |
| 12-2026 | (4) | -24% |
| 12-2027 | (4) | -21% |
| 12-2028 | (3) | -19% |
| 12-2029 | (3) | -17% |
| 12-2030 | (3) | -16% |
| 12-2031 | (3) | -16% |
| 12-2032 | (3) | -15% |
| 12-2033 | (3) | -15% |
| 12-2034 | (3) | -14% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
| 12-2028 | 1 |
| 12-2029 | 1 |
| 12-2030 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 34 |
| Days Inventory | 19 |
| Days Payables | 122 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (4) | (2) | 1 | 1 | (4) |
| 2026 | (3) | (2) | 1 | 0 | (3) |
| 2027 | (3) | (2) | 1 | 0 | (3) |
| 2028 | (3) | (1) | 1 | 0 | (3) |
| 2029 | (2) | (1) | 1 | 0 | (2) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2369.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1667.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Australis Oil & Gas Ltd (ATS.AX) a buy or a sell? Australis Oil & Gas Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Australis Oil & Gas Ltd (ATS.AX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1667.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.01.