As of December 15, 2025, Auction Technology Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $283.00, this represents a potential upside of -1191.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -935.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1191.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.3% - 11.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $190 million in 09-2025 to $689 million by 09-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 190 | 9% |
| 09-2026 | 249 | 31% |
| 09-2027 | 264 | 6% |
| 09-2028 | 300 | 14% |
| 09-2029 | 355 | 18% |
| 09-2030 | 397 | 12% |
| 09-2031 | 454 | 14% |
| 09-2032 | 519 | 14% |
| 09-2033 | 581 | 12% |
| 09-2034 | 633 | 9% |
| 09-2035 | 689 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -76% in 09-2025 to -54% by 09-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2025 | (145) | -76% |
| 09-2026 | (151) | -61% |
| 09-2027 | (156) | -59% |
| 09-2028 | (173) | -58% |
| 09-2029 | (200) | -56% |
| 09-2030 | (219) | -55% |
| 09-2031 | (250) | -55% |
| 09-2032 | (284) | -55% |
| 09-2033 | (317) | -54% |
| 09-2034 | (344) | -54% |
| 09-2035 | (372) | -54% |
with a 5-year average of $9 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2026 | 11 |
| 09-2027 | 13 |
| 09-2028 | 14 |
| 09-2029 | 16 |
| 09-2030 | 19 |
| 09-2031 | 21 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 41 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 38 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | (160) | (35) | 15 | 16 | (156) |
| 2027 | (164) | (37) | 16 | (4) | (139) |
| 2028 | (182) | (41) | 18 | 1 | (160) |
| 2029 | (210) | (47) | 21 | 7 | (191) |
| 2030 | (228) | (51) | 24 | 1 | (202) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -935.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1191.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Auction Technology Group PLC (ATG.L) a buy or a sell? Auction Technology Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Auction Technology Group PLC (ATG.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1191.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $283.00.