As of August 13, 2025, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $74.79 to $107.18 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $107.18 | +53.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $101.14 | +44.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $74.79 | +6.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $85.03 | +21.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $94.74 | +35.5% |
Is Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $69.94, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| Cost of equity | 5.6% | 7.3% |
| Cost of debt | 4.2% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 21.1% | 21.4% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.1% | 6.4% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $74 | $81,389M | 83.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $78 | $85,553M | 69.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $52 | $60,638M | 77.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $61 | $69,738M | 63.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $4,381M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 5.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $68,089M - $85,873M |
| Net Debt | $11,693M |
| Equity Value | $56,396M - $74,179M |
| Outstanding Shares | 948M |
| Fair Value | $59 - $78 |
| Selected Fair Value | $94.74 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $66307M |
| Enterprise Value | $82395M |
| Trailing P/E | 18.68 |
| Forward P/E | 17.56 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 104.77% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 17.15% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.29 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $32.15 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $25.29 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $14.96 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $12.75 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $9.47 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $94.63 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc's intrinsic value is $94.63, which is approximately 35.3% above the current market price of $69.94.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.