As of May 22, 2025, Atlas Technical Consultants Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $9.02 per share. With the current market price at $12.25, this represents a potential upside of -26.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $6.98 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $9.02 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -43.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -26.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.5% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $539 million in 12-2021 to $734 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 539 | 15% |
| 12-2022 | 565 | 5% |
| 12-2023 | 589 | 4% |
| 12-2024 | 633 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 645 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 663 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 679 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 692 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 706 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 720 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 734 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -6% in 12-2021 to 0% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (30) | -6% |
| 12-2022 | (19) | -3% |
| 12-2023 | (14) | -2% |
| 12-2024 | (10) | -2% |
| 12-2025 | (5) | -1% |
| 12-2026 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2028 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2029 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2030 | 0 | 0% |
| 12-2031 | 0 | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 2 |
| 12-2023 | 3 |
| 12-2024 | 4 |
| 12-2025 | 4 |
| 12-2026 | 5 |
| 12-2027 | 5 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 50 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 32 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2M/2022 | 6 | (1) | 1 | (2) | 8 |
| 2023 | 46 | (3) | 4 | 21 | 24 |
| 2024 | 56 | (2) | 5 | (1) | 54 |
| 2025 | 64 | (1) | 5 | 0 | 60 |
| 2026 | 72 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 61 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.98 | -43.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 9.02 | -26.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2.25 | -81.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5.25 | -57.1% |
Is Atlas Technical Consultants Inc (ATCX) a buy or a sell? Atlas Technical Consultants Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Atlas Technical Consultants Inc (ATCX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -26.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $12.25.