As of May 28, 2025, ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $3.26 to $80.62 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $80.62 | +60.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $55.64 | +10.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $46.45 | -7.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $21.00 | -58.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $3.26 | -93.5% |
Is ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc (ATA.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $50.23, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.6% | 4.1% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.7% | 5.7% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.17 | 1.31 |
| Cost of equity | 9.2% | 12.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.9% | 7.2% |
| Tax rate | 21.5% | 22.4% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.1% | 10.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $56 | $6,276M | 81.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $81 | $8,567M | 66.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $59 | $6,566M | 82.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $83 | $8,760M | 67.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $136M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.8% - 8.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,260M - $1,684M |
| Net Debt | $1,173M |
| Equity Value | $87M - $511M |
| Outstanding Shares | 92M |
| Fair Value | $1 - $6 |
| Selected Fair Value | $3.26 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $4606M |
| Enterprise Value | $5780M |
| Trailing P/E | 34.53 |
| Forward P/E | 25.57 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 12.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.27 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $24.19 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $13.91 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $9.29 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.15 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.33 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $50.86 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $50.86, which is approximately 1.3% above the current market price of $50.23.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.