What is ASY.L's Intrinsic value?

Andrews Sykes Group PLC (ASY.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Andrews Sykes Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $527.39 to $792.95 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $792.95 +50.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $720.46 +36.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $784.29 +48.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $527.39 -0.0%
Earnings Power Value $750.29 +42.2%

Is Andrews Sykes Group PLC (ASY.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $527.50, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Andrews Sykes Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.46 0.56
Cost of equity 6.7% 8.9%
Cost of debt 4.5% 4.6%
Tax rate 19.8% 20.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.07 0.07
After-tax WACC 6.5% 8.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $79 (FY12-2023) to $108 (FY12-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 23% to 24%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 5% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $720 $295M 75.3%
10-Year Growth $793 $325M 56.4%
5-Year EBITDA $392 $157M 53.8%
10-Year EBITDA $518 $210M 32.6%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 206.4%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0%
  • Fair value: $784.29 (48.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.9% (Low) to 6.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5% (Low) to 1.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $345 to $710
  • Selected fair value: $527.39 (-0.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $23M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.5% - 6.5%
Enterprise Value $266M - $348M
Net Debt $(7)M
Equity Value $273M - $355M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $652 - $848
Selected Fair Value $750.29

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $221M
Enterprise Value $214M
Trailing P/E 12.76
Forward P/E 11.88
Trailing EV/EBITDA 3.80
Current Dividend Yield 1617.04%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 37.37%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.07

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $237.89
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $180.12
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $156.86
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $79.11
Earnings Power Value 10% $75.03
Weighted Average 100% $729.00

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Andrews Sykes Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $729.00, which is approximately 38.2% above the current market price of $527.50.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (23% to 24% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.07)
  • Historical dividend growth of 37.37%

Given these factors, we believe Andrews Sykes Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.