What is ASTRLS.CO's Intrinsic value?

Astralis A/S (ASTRLS.CO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 20, 2025, Astralis A/S's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $9.48 to $9.48 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $9.48 +723.9%

Is Astralis A/S (ASTRLS.CO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.15, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Astralis A/S's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.7% 3.2%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.64 0.64
Cost of equity 6.0% 7.7%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 22.0% 22.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 5.0% 5.8%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $29M
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.8% - 5.0%
Enterprise Value $498M - $580M
Net Debt $(7)M
Equity Value $504M - $587M
Outstanding Shares 58M
Fair Value $9 - $10
Selected Fair Value $9.48

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $66M
Enterprise Value $60M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.70
Current Dividend Yield 62.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.04

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.95
Weighted Average 100% $9.48

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Astralis A/S's weighted average intrinsic value is $9.48, which is approximately 723.9% above the current market price of $1.15.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-11% to -9% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Astralis A/S is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.