What is ASRNL.AS's Intrinsic value?

ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL.AS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 1, 2026, ASR Nederland NV's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $50.19 to $52.68 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $50.19 -15.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $52.68 -11.0%

Is ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL.AS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $59.18, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate ASR Nederland NV's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.6% 3.1%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.67 0.75
Cost of equity 6.0% 8.1%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 22.0% 23.8%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.73 0.73
After-tax WACC 5.1% 6.3%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 119.2%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $50.19 (-15.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.1% (Low) to 6.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $26 to $80
  • Selected fair value: $52.68 (-11.0% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $12375M
Enterprise Value $18580M
Trailing P/E 22.58
Forward P/E 21.96
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 538.41%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 18.44%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.73

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $10.04
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $7.90
Weighted Average 100% $51.25

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, ASR Nederland NV's intrinsic value is $51.25, which is approximately 13.4% below the current market price of $59.18.

Key investment considerations:

  • Historical dividend growth of 18.44%

Given these factors, we believe ASR Nederland NV is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.