As of June 19, 2025, Aberdeen Standard European Logistics Income PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $11.25 to $63.19 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $63.19 | +5.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $52.51 | -12.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $21.80 | -63.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $11.25 | -81.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $25.98 | -56.7% |
Is Aberdeen Standard European Logistics Income PLC (ASLI.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $60.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Aberdeen Standard European Logistics Income PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.4 | 0.49 |
| Cost of equity | 6.4% | 8.4% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 5.7% |
| Tax rate | 17.2% | 20.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.9% | 6.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $62 | $491M | 82.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $74 | $542M | 70.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $23 | $331M | 74.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $38 | $392M | 58.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $20M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 4.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $309M - $415M |
| Net Debt | $236M |
| Equity Value | $73M - $179M |
| Outstanding Shares | 4M |
| Fair Value | $18 - $43 |
| Selected Fair Value | $25.98 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $248M |
| Enterprise Value | $449M |
| Trailing P/E | 96.03 |
| Forward P/E | 74.65 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 15.30 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 472.83% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.63% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.89 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $18.96 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $13.13 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $4.36 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $1.69 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.60 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $40.73 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Aberdeen Standard European Logistics Income PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $40.73, which is approximately 32.1% below the current market price of $60.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Aberdeen Standard European Logistics Income PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.