As of May 28, 2025, Aberdeen Standard European Logistics Income PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $101.34 per share. With the current market price at $57.00, this represents a potential upside of 77.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $89.71 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $101.34 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 57.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 77.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.1% - 6.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $42 million in 12-2023 to $45 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 42 | 15% |
| 12-2024 | 35 | -17% |
| 12-2025 | 37 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 37 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 39 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 41 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 42 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 42 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 43 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 44 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 45 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -194% in 12-2023 to -179% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (82) | -194% |
| 12-2024 | (63) | -179% |
| 12-2025 | (66) | -179% |
| 12-2026 | (67) | -179% |
| 12-2027 | (70) | -179% |
| 12-2028 | (73) | -179% |
| 12-2029 | (74) | -179% |
| 12-2030 | (76) | -179% |
| 12-2031 | (77) | -179% |
| 12-2032 | (79) | -179% |
| 12-2033 | (81) | -179% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 0 |
| 12-2026 | 0 |
| 12-2027 | 0 |
| 12-2028 | 0 |
| 12-2029 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 77 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 193 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 9 | (8) | 0 | (1) | 18 |
| 2025 | 20 | (16) | 0 | 1 | 34 |
| 2026 | 20 | (17) | 0 | (0) | 37 |
| 2027 | 21 | (17) | 0 | (0) | 38 |
| 2028 | 22 | (18) | 0 | 0 | 39 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 89.71 | 57.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 101.34 | 77.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 27.43 | -51.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 48.90 | -14.2% |
Is Aberdeen Standard European Logistics Income PLC (ASLI.L) a buy or a sell? Aberdeen Standard European Logistics Income PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Aberdeen Standard European Logistics Income PLC (ASLI.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 77.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $57.00.