As of June 1, 2025, Akasol AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $121.00, this represents a potential upside of -2375.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1072.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -2375.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.1% - 8.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $68 million in 12-2020 to $3327 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 47.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 68 | 43% |
| 12-2021 | 123 | 80% |
| 12-2022 | 247 | 100% |
| 12-2023 | 379 | 53% |
| 12-2024 | 567 | 50% |
| 12-2025 | 820 | 45% |
| 12-2026 | 1137 | 39% |
| 12-2027 | 1521 | 34% |
| 12-2028 | 2018 | 33% |
| 12-2029 | 2624 | 30% |
| 12-2030 | 3327 | 27% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -18% in 12-2020 to 0% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | (12) | -18% |
| 12-2021 | (13) | -10% |
| 12-2022 | (20) | -8% |
| 12-2023 | (22) | -6% |
| 12-2024 | (21) | -4% |
| 12-2025 | (13) | -2% |
| 12-2026 | (14) | -1% |
| 12-2027 | (13) | -1% |
| 12-2028 | (10) | -1% |
| 12-2029 | (4) | 0% |
| 12-2030 | 7 | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $17 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 35% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 26 |
| 12-2022 | 43 |
| 12-2023 | 69 |
| 12-2024 | 104 |
| 12-2025 | 151 |
| 12-2026 | 223 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 119 |
| Days Inventory | 332 |
| Days Payables | 140 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | 4 | (3) | 22 | 25 | (39) |
| 2022 | 16 | (9) | 87 | 67 | (130) |
| 2023 | 39 | (10) | 134 | 66 | (152) |
| 2024 | 77 | (9) | 201 | 117 | (232) |
| 2025 | 136 | (6) | 290 | 127 | (276) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1072.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2375.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Akasol AG (ASL.DE) a buy or a sell? Akasol AG is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Akasol AG (ASL.DE) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -2375.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $121.00.