As of May 24, 2025, Ashland Global Holdings Inc.'s estimated intrinsic value ranges from $38.50 to $75.46 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $58.24 | +18.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $40.94 | -17.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $38.50 | -21.9% |
| Earnings Power Value | $75.46 | +53.1% |
Is Ashland Global Holdings Inc. (ASH) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $49.30, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Ashland Global Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.25 | 1.45 |
| Cost of equity | 9.6% | 13.0% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 5.6% |
| Tax rate | 9.3% | 18.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.5% | 10.0% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $41 | $3,150M | 84.0% |
| 10-Year Growth | $58 | $3,966M | 69.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $27 | $2,472M | 79.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $40 | $3,094M | 60.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $410M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% - 7.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,090M - $5,466M |
| Net Debt | $1,218M |
| Equity Value | $2,872M - $4,248M |
| Outstanding Shares | 47M |
| Fair Value | $61 - $90 |
| Selected Fair Value | $75.46 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $2326M |
| Enterprise Value | $3544M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 61.95 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.80 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 4.02% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 4.26% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.54 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $17.47 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $10.24 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $7.70 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $7.55 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $50.53 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Ashland Global Holdings Inc.'s weighted average intrinsic value is $50.53, which is approximately 2.5% above the current market price of $49.30.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Ashland Global Holdings Inc. is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.