As of June 1, 2025, Ascom Holding AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $2.24 per share. With the current market price at $3.73, this represents a potential upside of -40.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $3.59 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $2.24 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -3.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -40.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.0% - 5.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $287 million in 12-2024 to $422 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 287 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 300 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 307 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 320 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 334 | 4% |
| 12-2029 | 347 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 362 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 370 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 385 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 401 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 422 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 12-2024 to 2% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 4 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 5 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 5 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 6 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 6 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 6 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 6 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 6 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 7 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 7 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 7 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $8 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 9 |
| 12-2026 | 10 |
| 12-2027 | 11 |
| 12-2028 | 10 |
| 12-2029 | 9 |
| 12-2030 | 9 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 94 |
| Days Inventory | 86 |
| Days Payables | 38 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 9 | (2) |
| 2026 | 18 | 1 | 8 | (0) | 8 |
| 2027 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| 2028 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
| 2029 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 3.59 | -3.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 2.24 | -40.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 4.39 | 17.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 4.16 | 11.6% |
Is Ascom Holding AG (ASCN.SW) a buy or a sell? Ascom Holding AG is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Ascom Holding AG (ASCN.SW) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -40.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.73.