As of June 3, 2025, Ascential PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $277.97 per share. With the current market price at $567.00, this represents a potential upside of -51.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $209.62 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $277.97 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -63.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -51.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.3% - 9.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $206 million in 12-2023 to $401 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 206 | 61% |
| 12-2024 | 225 | 9% |
| 12-2025 | 238 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 259 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 274 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 288 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 299 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 324 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 345 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 368 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 401 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2023 to 12% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 6 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 13 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 17 | 7% |
| 12-2026 | 21 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 26 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 31 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 33 | 11% |
| 12-2030 | 36 | 11% |
| 12-2031 | 39 | 11% |
| 12-2032 | 43 | 12% |
| 12-2033 | 47 | 12% |
with a 5-year average of $29 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 10% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 29 |
| 12-2025 | 29 |
| 12-2026 | 30 |
| 12-2027 | 28 |
| 12-2028 | 25 |
| 12-2029 | 27 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 323 |
| Days Inventory | 11 |
| Days Payables | 60 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 33 | 2 | 11 | (66) | 87 |
| 2025 | 73 | 4 | 23 | 38 | 8 |
| 2026 | 81 | 5 | 25 | 64 | (13) |
| 2027 | 87 | 6 | 27 | (23) | 77 |
| 2028 | 91 | 7 | 28 | 27 | 29 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 209.62 | -63.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 277.97 | -51.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 90.99 | -84.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 146.93 | -74.1% |
Is Ascential PLC (ASCL.L) a buy or a sell? Ascential PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Ascential PLC (ASCL.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -51.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $567.00.