As of May 27, 2025, American Resources Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.66, this represents a potential upside of -11265242.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -15097.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -11265242.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 7.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $17 million in 12-2023 to $6256478 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 260.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 17 | 58% |
| 12-2024 | 3 | -83% |
| 12-2025 | 105 | 3508% |
| 12-2026 | 281 | 169% |
| 12-2027 | 1500 | 433% |
| 12-2028 | 7305 | 387% |
| 12-2029 | 32998 | 352% |
| 12-2030 | 137779 | 318% |
| 12-2031 | 531382 | 286% |
| 12-2032 | 1896923 | 257% |
| 12-2033 | 6256478 | 230% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -68% in 12-2023 to -34% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (11) | -68% |
| 12-2024 | (1) | -47% |
| 12-2025 | (46) | -44% |
| 12-2026 | (115) | -41% |
| 12-2027 | (576) | -38% |
| 12-2028 | (2,621) | -36% |
| 12-2029 | (11,680) | -35% |
| 12-2030 | (48,113) | -35% |
| 12-2031 | (183,056) | -34% |
| 12-2032 | (644,617) | -34% |
| 12-2033 | (2,097,180) | -34% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1 |
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 6 |
| 12-2027 | 31 |
| 12-2028 | 150 |
| 12-2029 | 690 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 52 |
| Days Inventory | 3 |
| Days Payables | 225 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2024 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 2 | (2) |
| 2025 | (51) | (17) | 9 | (36) | (7) |
| 2026 | (126) | (43) | 23 | (66) | (41) |
| 2027 | (623) | (213) | 123 | (367) | (165) |
| 2028 | (2,780) | (969) | 598 | (1,754) | (654) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -15097.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -11265242.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is American Resources Corp (AREC) a buy or a sell? American Resources Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, American Resources Corp (AREC) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -11265242.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.66.