As of June 15, 2025, Aptitude Software Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $133.53 to $624.02 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $198.44 | -35.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $181.38 | -41.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $133.53 | -56.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $152.56 | -50.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $624.02 | +101.9% |
Is Aptitude Software Group PLC (APTD.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $309.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Aptitude Software Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.61 | 0.7 |
| Cost of equity | 7.6% | 9.9% |
| Cost of debt | 4.6% | 5.3% |
| Tax rate | 16.2% | 18.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.4% | 9.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $181 | $79M | 74.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $198 | $89M | 59.1% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $164 | $70M | 71.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $179 | $78M | 53.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $27M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.6% - 7.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $282M - $363M |
| Net Debt | $(20)M |
| Equity Value | $302M - $383M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1M |
| Fair Value | $550 - $698 |
| Selected Fair Value | $624.02 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $170M |
| Enterprise Value | $149M |
| Trailing P/E | 34.06 |
| Forward P/E | 36.71 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.30 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 181.65% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.30% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.06 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $59.53 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $45.34 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $26.71 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $22.88 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $62.40 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $216.87 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Aptitude Software Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $216.87, which is approximately 29.8% below the current market price of $309.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Aptitude Software Group PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.