As of April 4, 2026, Appfolio Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $225.64 per share. With the current market price at $157.11, this represents a potential upside of 43.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $144.82 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $225.64 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -7.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 43.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $951 million in 12-2025 to $3406 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 951 | 20% |
| 12-2026 | 1142 | 20% |
| 12-2027 | 1337 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 1559 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 1882 | 21% |
| 12-2030 | 2207 | 17% |
| 12-2031 | 2463 | 12% |
| 12-2032 | 2737 | 11% |
| 12-2033 | 2975 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 3183 | 7% |
| 12-2035 | 3406 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 15% in 12-2025 to 17% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 141 | 15% |
| 12-2026 | 138 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 176 | 13% |
| 12-2028 | 222 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 286 | 15% |
| 12-2030 | 357 | 16% |
| 12-2031 | 403 | 16% |
| 12-2032 | 452 | 17% |
| 12-2033 | 497 | 17% |
| 12-2034 | 537 | 17% |
| 12-2035 | 581 | 17% |
with a 5-year average of $16 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 18 |
| 12-2027 | 23 |
| 12-2028 | 31 |
| 12-2029 | 43 |
| 12-2030 | 57 |
| 12-2031 | 66 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 13 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 3 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 222 | 77 | 40 | 3 | 103 |
| 2027 | 285 | 98 | 47 | 6 | 135 |
| 2028 | 363 | 123 | 54 | 9 | 176 |
| 2029 | 472 | 159 | 66 | 9 | 238 |
| 2030 | 593 | 199 | 77 | 11 | 307 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 144.82 | -7.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 225.64 | 43.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 167.77 | 6.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 245.00 | 55.9% |
Is Appfolio Inc (APPF) a buy or a sell? Appfolio Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Appfolio Inc (APPF) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 43.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $157.11.