What is API's DCF valuation?

Agora Inc (API) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 4, 2026, Agora Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.66, this represents a potential upside of -147.0%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -219.4%
Potential Upside (10-year) -147.0%
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.3% - 9.8%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $141 million in 12-2025 to $295 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.7%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2025 141 6%
12-2026 162 15%
12-2027 190 17%
12-2028 202 7%
12-2029 215 7%
12-2030 232 8%
12-2031 244 5%
12-2032 257 6%
12-2033 270 5%
12-2034 278 3%
12-2035 295 6%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 7% in 12-2025 to 16% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2025 10 7%
12-2026 14 9%
12-2027 19 10%
12-2028 24 12%
12-2029 28 13%
12-2030 34 15%
12-2031 36 15%
12-2032 39 15%
12-2033 41 15%
12-2034 43 16%
12-2035 47 16%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $61 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 40% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2026 71
12-2027 45
12-2028 58
12-2029 68
12-2030 80
12-2031 86

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 82
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 88

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2026 65 0 64 8 (8)
2027 40 0 75 3 (39)
2028 56 0 80 1 (26)
2029 69 0 86 4 (21)
2030 84 0 92 3 (11)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 7.3% - 9.8%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 27.6x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -219.4%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -147.0%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 13.40 266.2%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 13.90 279.9%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(380)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(147)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Agora Inc (API) a buy or a sell? Agora Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Agora Inc (API) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -147.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from 7% to 16%)
  • Steady revenue growth (7.7% CAGR)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.66.