As of May 29, 2025, Aphria Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $18.88, this represents a potential upside of -5608.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1814.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -5608.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $543 million in 05-2020 to $25484 million by 05-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 46.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2020 | 543 | 129% |
| 05-2021 | 636 | 17% |
| 05-2022 | 1110 | 75% |
| 05-2023 | 1921 | 73% |
| 05-2024 | 3017 | 57% |
| 05-2025 | 4706 | 56% |
| 05-2026 | 6961 | 48% |
| 05-2027 | 10110 | 45% |
| 05-2028 | 14105 | 40% |
| 05-2029 | 19340 | 37% |
| 05-2030 | 25484 | 32% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -16% in 05-2020 to 7% by 05-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2020 | (85) | -16% |
| 05-2021 | (63) | -10% |
| 05-2022 | (68) | -6% |
| 05-2023 | (47) | -2% |
| 05-2024 | 31 | 1% |
| 05-2025 | 203 | 4% |
| 05-2026 | 345 | 5% |
| 05-2027 | 563 | 6% |
| 05-2028 | 873 | 6% |
| 05-2029 | 1315 | 7% |
| 05-2030 | 1886 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $125 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 217% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 05-2021 | 400 |
| 05-2022 | 867 |
| 05-2023 | 1655 |
| 05-2024 | 2921 |
| 05-2025 | 4933 |
| 05-2026 | 7672 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 38 |
| Days Inventory | 328 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2021 | 85 | (1) | 344 | 46 | (305) |
| 2022 | 804 | (4) | 2403 | 182 | (1,776) |
| 2023 | 1622 | (3) | 4160 | 533 | (3,069) |
| 2024 | 2979 | 2 | 6533 | 711 | (4,267) |
| 2025 | 5188 | 12 | 10190 | 843 | (5,858) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1814.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -5608.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 42.62 | 125.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 283.55 | 1401.8% |
Is Aphria Inc (APHA.TO) a buy or a sell? Aphria Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Aphria Inc (APHA.TO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -5608.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $18.88.