As of August 12, 2025, Alliance Pharma PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $38.40 per share. With the current market price at $64.70, this represents a potential upside of -40.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $16.36 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $38.40 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -74.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -40.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 8.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $179 million in 12-2024 to $318 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 179 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 209 | 17% |
| 12-2026 | 221 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 235 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 242 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 256 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 264 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 274 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 289 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 302 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 318 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -6% in 12-2024 to 1% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (11) | -6% |
| 12-2025 | (9) | -4% |
| 12-2026 | (6) | -3% |
| 12-2027 | (4) | -2% |
| 12-2028 | (1) | -1% |
| 12-2029 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2030 | 2 | 1% |
| 12-2031 | 2 | 1% |
| 12-2032 | 3 | 1% |
| 12-2033 | 4 | 1% |
| 12-2034 | 5 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 2 |
| 12-2027 | 2 |
| 12-2028 | 3 |
| 12-2029 | 4 |
| 12-2030 | 4 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 98 |
| Days Inventory | 126 |
| Days Payables | 88 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (1) | (4) | 3 | 10 | (10) |
| 2026 | 3 | (3) | 4 | 3 | (1) |
| 2027 | 8 | (2) | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 2028 | 12 | (1) | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 2029 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 16.36 | -74.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 38.40 | -40.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.08 | -89.1% |
Is Alliance Pharma PLC (APH.L) a buy or a sell? Alliance Pharma PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Alliance Pharma PLC (APH.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -40.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $64.70.